Reorder math for December
📦 Follow one SKU through Q4 to see if your reorder lands in time, Meta launches new ad formats as Google and OpenAI expand advertiser tools, and more!
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In this newsletter, you’ll find:
📦 Follow one SKU through Q4 to see if your reorder lands in time
📢 Meta launches new ad formats as Google and OpenAI expand advertiser tools
🏆 Ad of the day
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📦 Follow one SKU through Q4 to see if your reorder lands in time
Your best-selling beanie has a purchase order due November 24. If it lands a week late, what does that cost you?
Shopify's October 6 update makes that easier to answer. Its new purchase order reports in Shopify Analytics show order costs, track each purchase order through transfers, shipments and receiving, and list open orders that have no linked transfer yet. A dashboard shows acceptance rate and shipments due soon.
Here's the math on that beanie, using illustrative numbers.
The setup
- On hand today, October 7: 2,200 units
- Normal sales: 40 a day
- Black Friday week, November 23 to 30: 120 a day
- Open purchase order: 3,000 units, due November 24
- Margin per unit: $22
Step 1: Stock at the start of the peak
October 7 to November 22 is 47 days. At 40 a day, that's 1,880 units sold, leaving 320 on November 23.
At 120 a day, 320 units last under three days. The purchase order due November 24 arrives just in time.
Step 2: The slip test
Now assume the order arrives a week late, on December 1.
Peak week needs 960 units. You have 320. That's 640 lost sales, or $14,080 in margin, during the week your ads cost the most.
Step 3: Size your buffer from history
Use the transfers report to find how late this supplier usually delivers. If the average is five days, your buffer is five days of peak demand: 5 × 120 = 600 units.
Step 4: Choose a fix
Split and expedite. Ask the supplier to ship 600 units by air ahead of the main order. If air freight costs $3 a unit more, that's $1,800 to protect $14,080.
Slow the burn. If you can't speed up supply, cut ad spend on this SKU when it drops below seven days of cover, so stock lasts into the peak. That threshold is my judgment.
Shift demand. Push a similar product with healthy stock in November emails and ads.
Step 5: Check open orders weekly
The purchases-on-order report lists orders with no linked transfer, meaning the goods haven't started moving. Chase any of those due within 30 days. A supplier who hasn't shipped by then is unlikely to make your date.
Run it on your top 20
Repeat Steps 1 and 2 for your 20 best-selling SKUs. Sort by margin at risk if each order slips a week.
This week's call list
Check "shipments due soon" against your Black Friday plan. Every order due after November 20 deserves a call to the supplier this week.
📢 Meta launches new ad formats as Google and OpenAI expand advertiser tools
Meta, Google and OpenAI are introducing new advertising capabilities, while streaming platforms increase ad loads and security researchers uncover a new threat involving online advertisements.
The Breakdown:
Meta Introduces Ads Super Burst - Advertisers can book 3–24-hour windows with guaranteed delivery and optional category exclusivity. Early tests reached a median of 34 million people. Meta also introduced First Impression Ads and Reels Trending Ads.
Google Gives Advertisers More Budget Control - Google Ads is rolling out channel prioritization, allowing campaigns to fund high-priority channels first. Advertisers can cap the daily budget share allocated to lower-priority placements, including Search partners.
ChatGPT Ads Adds Human Support - OpenAI is reportedly assigning account managers to advertisers for strategy calls and biweekly reviews. Meanwhile, premium streaming platforms averaged 18% more ad minutes in August than January.
Hackers Exploit Online Ads to Deliver Spyware - Citizen Lab documented the first known case of government-backed hackers delivering zero-click spyware through online advertisements. Researchers are advising potential targets to block ads or disable ad tracking.
Advertising platforms are offering more control over reach, budgets and campaign support, while growing streaming ad loads increase competition for attention. The spyware discovery also raises security concerns around ad delivery infrastructure, adding another consideration for the broader digital advertising ecosystem.
🎥 Ad of the Day
What Works:
Scarcity Hits Hard - “Last chance ever” and “no restock” create aggressive scarcity, giving the ad strong urgency and making the limited flavors feel more collectible than simply discounted.
Claw Creates Disruption - The arcade claw physically grabbing the tub is a strong pattern interrupt, turning urgency into a visual metaphor while keeping the hero product impossible to miss.
Offer Stays Clear - The 20% off message repeats across the frame, reinforcing offer recall while the “72H only” banner adds a concrete deadline that reduces procrastination.
Don’t just say “last chance.” Show the product being taken away, disappearing or pulled out of reach so urgency becomes part of the creative itself.
🥳 Events
🔥 What Changes When Creator Programs Scale From 5 to 5,000
Tomorrow | Online | Free Festival
Return on Influence Festival ’26 opens up the systems behind large creator programs, including how teams track ROI, improve partnerships, and avoid operational chaos as volume grows. Hear directly from leaders at Adobe, ŌURA, Edelman, Ogilvy, and more.
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🥳 Events
🔥 Where to Put Your Next Growth Dollar Beyond Meta
October 29 | The Glasshouse, NYC | Free In-Person Event
Hear how Reddit CEO Steve Huffman thinks about discovery, how Cody Plofker helped scale Jones Road Beauty to nine figures, and how brands like Liquid I.V. and MANSCAPED use TV to drive measurable revenue. Bring your hardest acquisition question and leave with a sharper channel plan.
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